Everybody has their own special system for
picking a football winner and there seems to be a thousand
different "Cheat Sheets" out there. While we don't
subscribe to any particular system -- and we certainly don't
endorse any of the so-called "Gurus" -- we do
want to share with you some gambling tips that we've found
useful for betting and winning on football.
Football Point Spreads - Spotting Bargains!
Can 3½ points be a better line than 9½ points?
You bet!
Football scoring is a "numbers game"
… points are added to the score in units of 2, 3,
6, 7 or 8. With this in mind, its important to realize that
CERTAIN POINT SPREADS posted by the bookmaker ARE MORE IMPORTANT
than others. Because a relatively high percentage of games
end with a margin of victory in increments of these numbers,
it's imperative that attention be paid to the most meaningful
point spreads.
Well over half of all pro football games
end with one of ten possible differences in the score: 1,
3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, or 17 (not necessarily in that
order!)
So, the "Half-Point" move off
any of these numbers can represent a significant betting
opportunity.
Watch for Threes!
For example, a line of +3.5 is a BARGAIN
compared to that same underdog at +3 … this indicates
that the favored team must now score a touchdown as opposed
to a field goal in order to win the game. So, in essence,
a line move to +3.5 can be considered much more significant
that, say, a line move from +5 to +5.5.
And, by the same logic, a point spread that
moves from +3 to +2.5 indicates a RISKY BET on the underdog.
These half-point line changes from a point spread of 3 can
be much more significant than larger changes.
For instance, a line change from +7.5 to
+9.5 is hardly worth noticing. Because football games do
not usually end with a margin of 8 or 9, the move from +7.5
to +9.5 doesn't make much difference. When a team covers,
or fails to cover, 7.5 points, they almost always cover,
or fail to cover, 9.5 as well.
Check
out the live lines here and see if you can spot a bargain!
Lucky 13 - It's the Magic Number!
To gamble on football, it's important
to realize that certain scores are more likely to occur
than other scores. Would you believe that only 13 different
numbers represent more than 66% of all NFL football scores!
It's true! When predicting final football
scores, you must take into account these REAL NUMBERS …
7, 10, 13, 14, 16, 17, 20, 21, 23, 24, 27, 28, and 31
These numbers (plus scores in the category
of "Over 40") are the only real numbers worth
considering when forecasting the final outcome. Always adjust
your predictions accordingly.
In other words, say you've forecast the
Titans over the Rams by a score of 30-26 … this score
probably won't happen! Adjust your numbers to a score with
a higher probability of occurring … say, 31-24 or
28-27. Now you are dealing with a point spread worthy of
consideration.
